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WWL>Topics>>5-14-14 10:10am Garland: on retirement planning

5-14-14 10:10am Garland: on retirement planning

May 14, 2014|

Garland talks about the nation's dwindling retirement savings with David Lesmond of the A.B. Freeman School of Business, Forbes associate editor Ashlea Ebeling, and Brad Fortier of Fortier Financial.

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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)

You know -- what those would be a teenager on the way to collagen. Seemed like the list in the year. And -- -- -- and actually. And -- That particular -- Purdue and went through but thirty years. Test and services in polls. And determine. That the in the colleges the -- when you leave more -- to get into. Roland don't make a difference. As to whether doctors successfully in light. Political people and explain now when that single parent there was this week ago. I'm sure we can do that but it's certainly sells like that -- do than just hoping I can get into good college. -- -- We've done a number of shows in this put the constituency and as soon. Huge series things to imports years. -- mentally ill and how many of them below -- prisons how many of them or sitting in eagle room -- realized. There actually taken a bids in your room which did note that -- and and being left in the hall ways for weeks and done be there's too take Europe. But they're costing them all the little egg and the -- you've noticed that almost every time we have him and shooting. It's seems to be somebody that has little problem Milton middle will. So we'll have number doctor's own drew talk about what the roots which is what can be done. This. -- we're looking ago article when resume reading. And it's. Four almost five years talks have been rising at boomlet. And an embarrassment. And Clinton and ports regular stock in. Would have. From early 2009 through early 2013. And then you have -- -- -- -- an additional. 18% over the last year. And did debate among a lot of people that point -- -- obviously it is. Can -- -- growing in this bubble is that not did exactly. What should we investor would be doing. So we always called experts whom we have David Letterman was supposed to propel us repugnant. Maybe proven schooled presidency were searching the impact frequency trading and stock market. Propose are welcomed the sure appreciate the call brought thank you. So -- this country and now really are those percentages since 92000. Dollars. Yes it is in fact after the crash if O'Sullivan and no way their credit -- -- credit crunch. The equity indexes. That is more than doubled its in fact it's it's it's two point. To -- and 40% over its. Prior to bottom and we stand at the moment afterward -- 2013. That experience a 30% drop in the prices. In one year. And and the bickering next paragraph it's. It in today's in time I think you -- the person that's in the league for the ball. And the but columns. Stocks have only been more expensive only three times over the past century. 1920s. And who's virtually could and late 1990s. And the prelude to 2007. Financial crisis. Is history in the harbinger of the future. People always want in the future going to be -- block and Jackson square and you'll you'll find yourself surrounded by. Fortune teller who will tell you what you're future's going to be cold and that's particularly true look at the stock market given all the money that's invested and and we do you have. Historical norms that we look at when we fuel market and Robert -- recipient of the most recent -- present economic. What are argue the same thing that historically. Stocks. Stock price. A hole in the market. Will that deviate too far from the underlying earnings for that is used to support it. So you can imagine that that stock prices are supported by the cash flows of the -- So big earnings of affirmed. Firms across the market. Are maintaining. The rising. Behavior. Well stock prices are going to rise to meet. -- noticed over time is that historical averages for what we call the price earnings ratio. Or somewhere between fourteen and seventeen the war on average. And in particular those. Anchored that you mention that price earnings ratio. Rose precipitously especially during the dot com -- in the old seven credit market. -- Do you ratios for free throws well above the historical means they were hurt in the third. So connection prices you're paying thirty times. The earnings force stock and -- Don't a valuation levels. Good. Extent. Pre -- or. Pork foretell. Whether the marketed under or overvalued. Market however. Doesn't need that type of lower. He would call back. Many years to pick longer timeframe for the earnings and even in its model. Price -- ratios are now to -- -- There reasonably well and so people would argue that given what we would consider. Historical. They -- at the top and what valuation should be for the market as a whole. But honestly there is no way to dictate or for port tail away and -- it -- -- but it under it. That if it's that word. They were even possible. You'd you would -- that -- -- being created but you don't need to look -- very very difficult job. -- at the Olympic uppers breaker when we come back. Mud brings -- investors some imprints in New York one and -- -- -- Mean this seems different it's like we're. Have a heck of -- and everything are Reid says there's the nutrients and continued. And you're wonderful tell me well the Internet rules changed everything it can't look back -- history. Did their opinion. And an -- when you consider the business cycle and -- -- -- and come back and ask you about that anybody out there. They get by getting into the market you're in the market should he stay in the market do you have questions Gibbs call -- To -- zero when it suddenly told pretty. Anywhere in the country -- 66 aided the NC rule eight cents. Welcome back we're -- thing good about the stock market next or 100 thinking about high government. How many people -- ready how many people or in the market should it stay there should. For retirement or purposes should you get in the market now. Right now we're talking about a marketed the pro moved five Beers stocks have been rising. Since 2002013. At some. 18%. Gain over -- here. We're talking with -- professor David Letterman associate professor but it's -- in school of business. Surge and the impact of frequency trading on the stock market. Bread for the break I mentioned. What are taught to look Princeton role in the financial industry in this -- it's different war album always said. It's an. Is changed every. What you. Well we all remember the Internet because of the Internet while police in my mind and we have seen. In terms of Internet firms. That reform in the solely vast proliferation in the listings of NAVTEQ firms or tech firms or Internet firms. And it became that the new normal as Arafat achieved at the time Greenspan and that where. Firms would grow revenues. But not necessarily earnings. But that was -- prefer was young and you can -- that firm in in the hope that the earnings would catch up to the price. -- -- back to where PE racial discussion before. So things would then become. More balanced overtime. And never -- And -- never did catch up with the -- Revenue performance and and stock purchase well. But on a broader circle. The Internet has below for information diffusion to proliferate so that people can. Go on the net pick up information and firm or look at firms or read blogs on firms. And try to gain. Information that they would not have otherwise and it's so easy access to it. So there. Has changed things a lot. But remarkably things that are currently happening we still evaluation. Of that. That are still predicated on earnings. And ridiculous prices that are predicated on those earning. So in that regard well the Internet satellite information and Internet but the firm has definitely changed landscape of that I'd prefer the more we can get hot. For -- but the would be interesting environment. Is remarkably it but I have to that is. Technical people's view that -- treating it in the advent of the Internet is an avenue. Profit in girl for them. That very rare and that is very distinctive. It is very very very difficult to consistently make money patriot. You're rooting against professionals and more portly high frequency traders have far better access to -- rationed and you. And are much close to the source of the information. And as a result he ordered comparative disadvantage in that particular regard. All right let me bring more liberal losers Henry on the North Shore you rural and -- professor live. Hello and thank you my mind I'm curious about how much of an impact. That was saying -- has no interest rate environment and folks which is not giving people. Investment options -- vote outside of the equity markets. -- is that driving a lot of revenue and -- funds into the equity market and you concerned about that factor perhaps pleasing to some -- valuations. You know that they're really good question and your career -- in your right here. I do believe it's news that the heroic history department. Critical. Through the quantitative -- process. Has created in one that class investment and that is the stock market there is impressed plans out there and you're very correct Indians in observing that. The bond market yields being zero means fixed income is not an investment class retirees can reliant. You can't look outside the US because of from oil and Ukraine in in Brazil and India and China. So you're finding -- market investments B two B cultural. In that -- -- market. And an -- like you believe that this one ethnic class that's been created. It is being artificial the propped up. For two reasons one of which you mentioned that. Cash is flowing out of the bond market and into the stock market because we know -- -- the game. But come back and when we look at what prices should be completely discount them rate. And with the Fed lowering interest rates such -- low level at discount rate is now very low. Which means that any cash flows from birds are going to be. Magnified in terms of price. So we have two factors one is. Investment flows into the market out of any of their investment vehicle afraid. Of real estate which people are testing it. But the second reason is that the discount rate excuse but it did -- -- cash flows to arrive at a price that analysts would recommend the discount rate below. So now we're seeing and vacations and valuations. In this particular perspective. So yes I do believe that the Fed actions happen there economic impact impact on markets but in particular the premarket. No this is difficult to do that it is a risk to achieve it maybe you. All about it terms -- How much. Risk in terms of equity market. Yeah well. The other players need we need we would like argue for a total number of factors that that we that we would look at this particular -- But one factor that that people are discussing which. Is that currently being spoken about it is it is apple volatility. I hope of the box themselves and whether an -- can be used to price. Future market returned. In this particular respect for people to look at formal level volatilities namely how much the prices and an eighty patients over one month. If that number theory across all the stocks. Then you can predict that the next -- amber is going to be elevated to compensate you for that added volatility risk. I don't blame for that. The only metric we have heard this standard data which I'm not a future workers while but. Is that volatility also some some copper red light that some of that should be -- it. Well you know when you start to the volatility swings in the market you support to the evidence that. -- underlying. Liquidity costs are starting to go opera and when they begin to be elevated. That means that volatility is going to be rising as a result. And conversely if the -- after the falling volatility is going to be following as well. So if you believe that their volatility measure both of fixed indexed for for instance or the volatility. Firm level. Return to. That and that become the be gets to be elevated. You can then begin to predict that markets -- -- -- -- conversely that beacon -- markets are going to bear market returns could be expect the full. Next period however I have to say that none of this none of in terms of volatility. Is firmly established and literature all -- we can make deficits. But techniques and -- know what to wide investors have been take a look at everything picture picture investing and and you were exposed to a number of different ethnic classes because. It is regular investors like you know -- We need to be exposed to these stock market regard. And it's been an earlier earnings exclude today. But if the market's going down we don't know that America is going up again I don't know that I do notice that the market will move to more. The media exposure to the stock market we need exposure to the bond market we need exposure to some decline and in and so do we arrive at diversification. Which means that one day of classes going up and the other two were going down ever recover and still be positive. I'm banking. Because they do believe in one aspect define it that's very true that diversification benefits. And what we find is that retail investors you are not diversified. We're all in one -- -- oracle or all of another class that that an effort to expose new testament to. Professor. It's amazing and thank her. It's amazing. Is that hindering -- since. And it as all those questions. And he came and the other. Oh so the brilliance of that course was really easy repayments. From about -- thank you so much love to have you back later on. Hewlett 2000 -- in Horry is actually. Concerning frequency trading choate thank you again and have it. Aren't covered -- -- will have -- two -- experts and it's done well we'll talk about about the market blood. Primarily. About. Or you ready for retirement were room were retiring in this country. If you marked the year 2011. And -- nineteen years every one of those years. Every day of those yours we will air at least. People in this country and well and people will turn sixty. So we're gonna talk about retirement or -- you ready if they can get ready. A British Columbia. And pick a room just isn't predicting. Read something -- rule -- -- read something else global of these student. The first thing over what we do it for example this shall as standard and four record setting -- in it has to. Between 2002013. In it and gained an additional. 18%. Over the -- languages and talk and do. Economists. Academic proposed. Said he sees no real indication that this sport and change and short. And and accessible. It's doing and Edmonton country. And I don't know how good these numbers or pulled out something calls it is the brewery and was number one and -- groups urged. So unpalatable it's so blatantly. What it says the average age of government in this country is 662. And the leading that you. Average link between answering retirement is eighteen yours. And the average Americans. As say 43000. Dollars. So we've got. And now baby boomers hitting 65. Every day. And the average age of retirement sixty Q and and all of these people that they -- and it's like between yours and make up 26%. -- population. I -- an average of 42000. -- markets open economy grew. So as usual. -- on the notes is -- go to the experts. We have actually heavily associate electorate port to actually thank you so much for joining. And of them returned to -- -- Portuguese surplus. Planned with or that you put it. Accurately. You came back again but apparently you like -- Welcome back and actually the year. Experts like to do about that and -- you all seem pretty optimistic that this sport. We keep that going with the retirement situation in -- basic. Is what I said about retirement -- close. Older retirement crisis that definitely clear they're they have not been as. And at Gallup poll recently talked about how. The top financial worry among Middle -- American is not having enough money for retirement that clearly on people's mind. But there are there aren't the solution that there's so hopefully we can talk about them. -- old dude talked to their ride that -- looked towards solutions. Well one thing -- them. Looking at -- who have workplace plan. If you have. At 401K plan for a three people and network stated this essential that you start dating and it. And that the matter no matter what -- read it. We -- fidelity -- at the statistics rather average borrowing came down that people had back in the market. Low economic downturn with 46000. The people who stuck with that kept contributing. By the first quarter 2014. Average balance was up to 88600. So if you can -- you have nowhere without it cut it. You're spending and they have a little more. Down they can have a big impact. Bread. A just turned a 103. Am -- ready for the retirement thing in what do you suggest to people that are hitting this with. Well leave an 88600. For another eighteen years and how they -- that. And I think everybody has. Negotiated in their own -- in obviously depends on the resource is you have go on and I mean clearly. The first thing we need to I guess we can see is we now. The market is not really good representation of the economy in. I think would probably taken place more and asked that market but the real estate and stocks. The more the result of bad policy than anything else battle thanks doctor being bid up because people are more optimistic about his future corporate earnings. It's more a function of quantitative easing in and -- essentially repressing interest rates which prop up ball all risk assets. I think everybody called that different as people who have passed that. You know obviously they're trying to to negotiate the end of quantitative easing that start to take place this year. All of you know if you don't have assets. Obviously I think it's always the best thing to do it starts saving in an alcoholic bet on it starts saving. Focus on the things you can control pitcher expenses down. I have a lot of family and my practice who -- consolidating console in order to accomplish that with a lot of creative ways. And best quote on quote without needing to -- -- lunatic breaker -- come back in talk about some more answers in actually. When we come back. Read an article left side to think of Wall Street Journal that said student loans. Or really putting the web -- over the housing market. They can declare bankruptcy bill don't have money to pay all the loans therefore. Owning a home is not even viable -- bread. And actually you mentioned fidelity. Not very long ago who investing. Two start out with. 46000. Ended up with the 886. Which to me he still doesn't seem like a number the school as you read two years. Like it did one. You're you're trying. After the retirement rules and at that age 55. Five times their annual salary -- her retirement that. Yet for some people that have directory but for others it. -- when he there but it can work. But you're right there it. That point. That a lot of people that don't. Have enough they have to start with that they'd need to be looking at more creative solutions. Like that combining out possibly taking equity out of their houses. Cutting back is is unfortunately. The solution where a lot of them. Are bullish signal Rego a dog a lot of young people could you talk to movement. Again out in public can you certainly called into excellent if you have questions about you don't. Weep for sure -- eater or view. Selling real legislators who were doing. Corporate. You've got questions on what should you begin dusting and what should you be doing Gibbs school to -- 0187203866. -- nine. Zero -- so. Okay -- every day double Nabil project board opinion poll unscientific. But it's always an interest and we as cute. Your baby boom. Are you prepared for retirement 64%. To abuse. Absolutely and that is subject we're talking about today. We have as surely have been heavily ego associate editor at Forbes read Portuguese certified. -- neutral plan would hold true provincial. Actually. The -- delegate to the figures you looked at what year was that from. With comparing. The third quarter 2009 the third quarter 2014. To eleven point six. Think about Sunday about but then for pre retirees that these -- but they've been with a little better news. In that group that actually they had a lot of time that they've averaged down with a 160. The sixth -- built built though. It short of that fact -- your annual salary call. And and that someone else broke -- view this basic question. 46002. 80600. Went from that same period in terms like that the stock market is gone. Menus do a little bit older generations been better they've got a 165000. Little sick to 165000. Figure if the figure I quoted -- average -- marriages 62. We've got a 165000. Dollars to liberal and Social Security if you're lucky is what 30000 a year. Is that enough to to make it through 1820 years. We've got buildings over the edge -- the go with a pretty. You know. I aimed -- about the depends on the -- and you depend depend on you like about the that the key thing with his retirement it and you have to look at your individual plan it's great if you can work with -- -- there. Who can who can help you with that that the way to that the work now as a candidate other -- that are not yet figured you're supposed to be it and Batman advisor and planner. Which is that not your thing you know -- not only make them Brad Pitt who could help you know. -- fund -- or being an adult this can be bird of Coke or Oprah have what you. But I guess I would say -- I think a big picture of everything and I think America has. Bitten into a financial dogma over the last fifty years that were filing waking up to one. If they've bought it -- file myself abated boomer who under under his retirement conducted and to the American dream of homeownership and and a variety of other myth I think the first thing I would do is I would get on the -- our cult or by force single. But I would try to find. Reached for my closest friends who are really enjoy being -- and right now one of the reasons. Stocks are supposedly going up and values because you know you're hearing a lot of mergers and acquisitions -- companies do this. Two to manage their costs and reduced expenses I would be looking to do that. If I were debated -- -- -- way to improve your standard of living overnight is not too. You know try to get lucky with an investment it's to cut your expenses as much you can. Rather than do some reverse mortgage and try to live in two separate structures. I would challenge people to try and find a close family member or friend that they enjoy the company went. And you know by house and a and a walk able community maybe you're able. Eliminate. Our car needs insurance needs one cable bill. You know I would try to get creative on the expense side rather than try and look for great investment opportunities without the prices had as elevated as. Because it's complicated very important subject will do this show again and actually at. Jim will you call you wrote a couple of hundred more -- -- -- I want went. I'm going to be you know getting higher -- putting money in their health savings account doing you put getting that baby thing. And I forgot to ask you border -- articles or -- Talked about young people should be putting 23525. Dollars a day is that. Ratio you've ever heard of. I think that people and that's why this -- Patrick and as your salary is it really is obviously optimistic but that is. Better that -- -- president to. Get the pet. The profanity. Are looking at that point it and that employers help you out giving. All right funeral funeral -- come by conditional would you do have to come and sit pleased to flee from the seventeen year old daughter actually at all as Juliet thank you so much. Read people applaud you do they Google or -- and central. Just go to web site thanks -- tortured by about outlawed in you wanna -- are writing still treated these we cannot export it. Aptly ethnic Ellie -- that leads -- that will reduce. It.

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